Posts
Congressional Republicans continue to embrace a highly puzzling legislative strategy. "Repeal and replace," the rallying cry a la mode, draws attention to the misguided nature of the new conservative leadership.
With support for health care reform equivocal, conservatives have begun to rally the masses in a last ditch effort to repeal the bill. America is barely recovering from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Pandering to Fox News and its ridiculous pundits can only get them so far. Its been more than sixteen years since the last attempt at reform. Nonetheless, conservatives argue America spends more per capita on health care; yet, we still have the lowest life expectancy of all the OECD countries. We have a problem. Stop whining and embrace this opportunity to do something decent!
It's about time for congressional republicans to remember why they entered the political world in the first place: to govern. Take a cue (or not) from David Frum's latest commentary on the devastating effects of radical conservatism gone awry. Through his constant apocalyptic warnings of the Democrat's socialist ambitions, House minority leader Boener has successfully distracted the public from noticing the non-partisan CBO report, which estimates that health care reform will reduce the Federal deficit by roughly $130 billion over the first ten years and $1.3 trillion in its second decade.
The public will eventually notice the effects of the bill. 95% Americans now have the support they need to become healthier and happier. If this is true, the Conservative's unanimous rejection of bi-partisanship will deny them of any credibility going into election season. Where is the upside?
The political calculus is confusing, to say the least.
To be continued...
1 comments:
It's definitely an interesting situation. If one thing is for sure, it's that just about every pundit and politician has been throwing out random predictions about the political/electoral effects of this bill, and none of them has any frickin' clue what's going to happen.
The big thing about midterm elections is turn out. This can partly describe the seemingly reckless tactics of the Republicans (the other being that if they actually HAD blocked the bill from being passed, it would have killed the Dems in November). The repeal rhetoric ensures that the crazies come out to vote, and in a midterm, that can make all the difference.
Having bashed predictions, I supposed I'll make my own. This is one I've made before, but only now is it somewhat believable. I've always stated that Obama will be hated for a year or two. He has a SLOW and STEADY approach to politics, with a long-term strategy. Because of this, I believe that over time his popularity will slowly improve and solidify (ala Clinton with his 60% approval during impeachment...aaaand the reverse of Bush's all or nothing strategy that led to 20% approval). IF Obama can continue being the rock he is, proving that he is a an unstoppable, if slow, force, Americans will eventually get it and get behind him and the Dems. So. In November. I predict a net loss of 10-15 House seats for the Dems (current CW predictions stand around 25), with a minimum loss of 5. This is to be expected in a midterm. In the Senate however, where current projections show a loss of 3-6 seats, I believe things will stay on the lower side. There are about 3 or 4 seats the Dems will likely lose, but I think they'll capture a few of the Republican-help Open seats, mitigating Republican gains. I'll go with a net loss of 2-4 seats, with probably a 2 seat loss minimum.
Post a Comment